So is it all over bar the shouting?
It is certainly true that its been a great campaign nationally and locally. The people are terrified by the prospect of a Corbyn government, fully aware that a vote for the Lib Dems might nonetheless give them Corbyn, and are broadly supportive (sometimes with reservations) of the Tories and Boris. They really do want Brexit done - one way or the other. The polls have remained pretty steady at about a 10-point lead over Labour, and therefore a probable overall majority of 20 seats or so.
So what can go wrong now? Really only one thing - complacency. Here in North Wiltshire we had 61% of the votes cast at the last election, a 23,000 majority. Yet I never forget that in 1997 I won the seat with a meagre 3500 majority. We’ve been doing a good bit of work in neighbouring seats. Chippenham should be all right - but only if the Conservative pledges actually take the trouble to vote on Thursday. Cheltenham is on a knife-edge, but the outstanding local candidate, Alex Chalk, is a favourite on the doorsteps I have canvassed in the last week or two. Stroud really should be a Con Gain if Labour are as unpopular as I think they are.
Yet Stroud may be the victim of the second threat we face - tactical voting. The Lib Dems in Stroud stood down in favour of the Green Party; yet they know full well that few of their natural voters will support the no-hope Green. So their surrender in Stroud was actually in favour of the Labour candidate. Tactical voting may well benefit the Tories in Brexit Labour-held seats, of which we would hope to win about 40, mainly in the Midlands and North of England. Yet rejoice as we may well do in the West country at the collapse of the Lib Dems, that may benefit Labour in the North where we want a strong Lib Dem vote to steal votes from Corbyn.
Leaving complacency and tactical voting as the two main remaining threats on one side, my -relatively optimistic - prediction (and all predictions should be consigned to the rubbish bin shortly after being made) is currently: Tories 340 seats; Labour 220; Lib Dems 12; SNP 48, which gives an overall Tory lead of 30 or so. (And I know it doesn’t quite add up - I have disregarded the DUP, independents, the green, the Speaker and Sinn Féin who never take their seats.)
So no - it’s not all over. I am hopeful of a Conservative majority government for the first time in 32 years (1987 was the last proper overall working majority). But to achieve that great and historic victory we need every single Conservative pledge to be certain to vote on Thursday, and take nothing for granted. Even my relatively optimistic estimate gives us a majority of only 30. So it’s not all over, not by any means. Not until the lady of generous proportions has hit the high note…….But one last heave, and we may have something to celebrate on Friday 13th.