Do you ever get that hollow, sinking feeling in the pit of your stomach that something is about to happen- something big; and something you can very probably do little about.
I was proud to stand beside the Prime Minister last Wednesday to welcome into Parliament 120 soldiers returning from Operations overseas. They have done sterling work for the security of our nation, and in my little speech of welcome, I also mentioned their families without whose loyal support their job would be impossible, those who have returned from operations with physical or mental injuries, and those comrades who will never return… Then on Friday, I joined the nation in rejoicing at the second Royal wedding of the year. Parliament, the military, the office of Prime Minister, the Royal Chapel in Windsor Castle, the Queen and Royal family. Another Royal announcement followed on Monday with the Duke and Duchess of Sussex revealing that they are to be parents in the Spring of next year. These are the very stuff which make up the structure of our society, and they should be respected and sustained.
Yet I do wish that the PM would listen to good sense in the Brexit negotiations and switch her attention to a trade deal with the EU after our departure, akin to that agreed with Canada. That would be acceptable, so we are told, to the EU; it would pass through Parliament with probably only limited opposition; and it would deliver to the people what they voted for – a clean departure from the EU.
However, for some reason, she seems determined to persist with the Chequers proposals, which are unacceptable to almost everyone; and with the Northern Ireland ‘Backstop’ arrangements, only made worse by the removal of a clear end-date, which would have the net effect of binding the UK to the European Customs Union indefinitely. If that is the ‘deal’ which she strikes with the European Commission on Wednesday, then it will not have my support in Parliament. I will vote against it, together with very many of my Conservative colleagues, the DUP who will not allow Northern Ireland to be ‘cut off ‘ from Great Britain in that way; and the Labour Party, bar a handful who may support the PM. If that is the case, then she will lose the vote on the ‘deal’ in Parliament. What happens then is anyone’s guess, but it must include a renewed effort to secure a Canada style agreement. It would be so much easier if she would just go down that track now.
I remain convinced that there will be no second referendum; there will be no general election. I hope that no leadership battle will be necessary within the Conservative Party; and I remain hopeful that our divorce from Europe can be on civilised and sensible terms of benefit to both halves.
But that sinking feeling in the pit of my stomach indicates troublous times to come. If we carry on down the cul –de-sac of the Chequers proposals, then it is hard to see an easy or satisfactory outcome. I hope that the Prime Minister will think again, drop Chequers and seek a Canada ++ arrangement with the EU. If she does not do so the consequences – for the EU, for the UK, and for Mrs May herself could be both unpredictable and very probably pretty dire.