Our intense domestic fixation- with Covid and its handling, and with Brexit; with the minutiae of our own lives and criticisms of our perceptions of how the Government are to blame, risks blinding us to the wider world.
Yet there is an awful lot happening out there. What is China’s 200-year game plan? (That’s the kind of timeframe they think in.) What are the true consequences of their Belt and Road initiative? What are their long-term plans for Taiwan and the South China Sea? Are they likely to be an overt (or more probably covert) dominating force over the entire world within a generation? Was Covid intentional (surely not); or are they learning lessons from Covid for future use of Pandemic as a weapon of war? What of Russia? Are their cyber capabilities developing as fast as China, and might Cyber become a potent weapon of war in the near future? The Middle East seems to have gone quiet of late; and Islamic terrorism less visible; but we take our eye off that ball at our peril. Europe is going through a period of profound change- economically and politically, and not solely because of Brexit. And the outcome of the United States election in a couple of months’ time could well have consequences for us all (irrespective of which way it goes.) All of that is without touching on South America, Africa and India, large parts of which are in Covid meltdown. And over and behind it all is the ever-present threat of Climate Change, melting polar ice and weather extremes. The world is a dangerous place indeed.
The Government are nearing the end of their Comprehensive review of Foreign Policy, defence and overseas aid. There are some conclusions emerging already. I personally support the amalgamation of the aid department with the Foreign Office. Overseas aid should be an instrument of diplomacy as well as a humanitarian necessity. Then there seems to be a strong message emerging from discussions that our defence posture is out of date. Some traditional aspects of warfare (e.g. main battle tanks) may well be replaced by attack helicopters, and cyber, intelligence, special forces operations will replace more traditional infantry and gunnery skills. The Royal Marines may well see some real changes; and the Royal Navy and Air Force face deep cuts.
I personally wholly accept the need for us to reassess what our role should be in the World and alter our defence and diplomatic stance as a result. But that must not be camouflage for deep defence cuts for example to cover some of our Covid costs. That risk may alone make this the worst possible time for any such review.
Not only am I strongly committed to increasing our defence spending and strengthening our forces; (and representing an area like this that is perhaps hardly surprising); but I am also very much of the view that the only certainty in warfare is uncertainty and unpredictability; and that we put all of our defence and foreign affairs eggs in one basket at our peril.
I am spending a couple of days at the magnificent Defence Academy at Shrivenham leading 50 MPs and peers on the Armed Forces Parliamentary Scheme, of which I am Chairman. We will be hearing from the greatest experts on all of these matters and quizzing them on it. The discussion will become faster and hotter as we near the outcome of the review. I will be firmly holding the Government to account over it.