Covid Decision Time

Every change to the Covid precautions produces a torrent of correspondence. It’s a topic on which virtually everyone has a view, some better informed than others, but all expressed in pretty extreme language. How have we all become such experts on epidemiology, parliamentary constitutional procedures, libertarian philosophy and economics under a pandemic? Most of us could probably write a book about it. Some of my regulars have done.

The reality is that there are four strands to every decision about Covid.

First is the Nanny State versus Individual Responsibility debate. Yet no matter how libertarian may be one’s instincts, the reality is that many of our fellow citizens are nowhere nearly as responsible as we are. The young, for example, perfectly reasonably argue that they are unlikely to die or even be very ill, so why should they not be allowed to get on with their lives? Indeed so, but you lot will then infect your elders.

Second is the Livelihoods versus Lives debate. If current restrictions go on for much longer, the consequences for the economy may well be so harsh and possibly permanent that it will cost many more lives through unemployment, suicide, poverty and starvation than would an uncontrolled pandemic (vide Sweden).

Third is the allied argument about freedom versus dictatorship. The Social Contract dictates that we give up only those freedoms necessary for the greater good of the greatest number. We sacrifice our liberties to the State because we accept it is overall to society’s benefit. But what happens when we disagree with what the government has decided? If we are of the view that masks are a waste of time, do we just ignore the regulation that we should wear them?

And fourth is the Government versus Parliament debate. Who is really in charge here? The Coronavirus Act is pretty totalitarian, allowing HMG to do more or less whatever it wants. Its six-monthly review is due next week. Should we freedom lovers support its extension for another 6 months? I have seconded Sir Graham Brady’s amendment which would require each decision to be endorsed by a vote in Parliament. Its legislative powers are being questioned.  But right now, a Zombie Parliament because of its various Covid-related procedures and the Covid Act means that people really have very little say as to what life should be like. That explains the frustration in some of their letters.

Now each of those debates is capable of clear and strong argument on either side. Yet there is no simple answer to any of them. They are the arguments which the Government, or the PM in particular, are constantly weighing up, and each decision tries to take account of them. My own view is that since just about everybody is objecting to one or another aspect of the rules and regulations, the Government have pretty much got it right with a pragmatic middle road.

The statistics - of infection, hospitalisation and death - will tell us how right they are, and also how much the general population have accepted the rightness of the rules and abided by them. The Government will not hesitate to tighten them up if not. So let’s stick with it for now in the hope they do not have to do so.