If you were that way inclined, you would be forgiven for being a bit gloomy right now. Second lockdown, disease and death, economic uncertainty, the world in turmoil. The time of year breeds gloom- the trees more or less bare; rain, fog. Even the wonderful Remembrance events in their truncated form are hardly designed to make us cheery.
Yet as Desmond Tutu said, “Hope is being able to see that there is light despite all of the darkness.” It is, after all in the darkest skies that we see the brightest stars. And we do suddenly have some glimpses of hope to come.
The Pfizer announcement of a workable vaccine, and the NHS determination to get it (and the other vaccines in advanced state of development) out to patients as soon as possible; mass testing, and tests with more or less immediate results suddenly look possible; even the much maligned Test and Trace system is looking better. The figures are still pretty dire- especially for Covid related deaths. But they tend to follow the infection figures by two or three weeks, and the number of those becoming ill seems to have levelled off. Even the ‘R’ factor is looking better in most parts of the country. So the Tier system, followed by total Lockdown seems to be working.
A sensible plan to get all students tested and those who are clear allowed home for Christmas has been developed; the chances of having a decent family Christmas suddenly seem brighter. Even the economy is showing signs of recovery - 16% growth in the few months between Lockdowns, which shows the resilience of the Demand side of the equation. There will still be tough times to come but these figures show that a ‘V’ shaped Recession is at least possible. After all, our expectations and standards of living are the same as they were before Covid, and our means of supplying that demand pretty much still in place. So why should the fundamentals of the economy not be just as strong as they were this time last year? The Stock Market and money markets seem to indicate some confidence that that is indeed the case.
The wider world too is suddenly looking brighter. There will be all kinds of shenanigans to come with the Brexit negotiations - there always are with EU negotiations. But it seems to me very likely that there will be a final agreement by the end of the year, and we will leave the EU on good terms, and safeguard our future by it. I have my reservations about Joe Biden, but at least we can hope for a degree of stability in the USA. Do you remember ‘Chemical Ali’ declaring that Saddam had won the war just as the American tanks were rolling into Baghdad? Spin doctors should know their place (Messrs Cummings and Cain to note.) Donald Trump must now accept that the game is up and leave the White House with whatever shreds of dignity are left to him.
So my prediction is that in the New Year - or at least by Easter - Covid will be starting to recede; the world will be a calmer place; we will have finally left the EU closing the Brexit chapter; and the economy will be less dire than some predictions would have you believe. There is suddenly a speck of light at the far distant end of a variety of tunnels, and what we must do is cheer up and make it happen.