The House has risen for the Christmas Recess. But two great questions hang in the air.
The negotiations on a Free Trade Agreement with the EU are beginning to sound a little more hopeful. If an agreement is reached by Friday this week, then it is likely that the House will be recalled in the early part of next week, and will work through to Christmas to scrutinise what has been decided (all 1000 or so pages of it), and either vote to pass it into UK law or, at least theoretically, to turn it down.
However, if an agreement is reached after Friday, the Recall seems likely to be around 30th of December, which strikes me as leaving worryingly little time for proper scrutiny of what has been decided. If no deal at all is reached, then then the House will not be recalled, leaving the consequential arrangements to the Government, with Parliament scrutinising what has happened when we get back on Tuesday 5th January.
Of all of those options, by far the best seems to me to be an early draft agreement, with Recall on Monday 21st, after which we can sit as long as may be necessary to give due consideration to it (leaving aside Christmas Day itself which must be sacrosanct), and also allow the House of Lords to have a view.
After all, the details being negotiated may well affect us all in almost every aspect of lives for a generation and more to come; so it is our duty to make sure that the professional negotiators, and indeed the PM, have got it right. We all want a deal. We want to see an end to Brexit- just to get it done. But that must not allow us to take our eye off the ball and agree to something which we may come to regret. We must not sell out our fisheries; nor must we be stuck to future EU laws on employment or the environment; and these matters must not be adjudicated by the European Court of Justice. Too great a concession on any of those matters would not be acceptable to the majority who voted to leave the EU. Like any divorce, a clean break is best.
The other part of the Cloud of Un-knowing, of course, is Covid. I am glad that the Government have stuck by their promise to allow us all some kind of limited Christmas festivities. Not only is it one of the most wonderful and significant parts of the year; but also had they not done so, it is probably unlikely that some of us at least would have observed too draconian a regime. Covid Constraints must be Consensual if they are to work. So I am glad that Christmas is going ahead, but I also hope that people will be as modest and careful as they can be to avoid a massive third spike and resulting lockdown in January. This new strain of the disease seems to spread alarmingly rapidly; and we simply have to arrest its progress.
At a time like this predictions are barely worth the paper they are written on. But I profoundly hope that we get a reasonable Brexit FTA as soon as possible, that we scrutinise it as best we can and pass it into law before the 31st January deadline; and that we have a Happy, if modest Christmas, enabling us to emerge from Covid soon in the New Year. If even part of that happens, we will have good reason for celebration.