It is at least a theoretical possibility that if Theresa May had not done a deal with the DUP, HM the Queen would ultimately have been forced to summons Mr Corbyn to ask if he felt he was able to form a minority Government. The only other possibility would have been a second General Election, with the likelihood of a serious Labour challenge, if not guaranteed victory.
So it may be that some of us dislike some aspects of DUP social policy (yet most are matters of personal conscience and a free vote in the House of Commons.). It may be that we jealously eye the £1.5 Billion investment in Northern Ireland and imagine what that would have done to the potholes in Northern Wiltshire (ignoring the much higher unemployment and other legacies of the Troubles which the Province is struggling to put right.) It may be that we are uneasy about some aspects of the read-across to the Ulster peace process (although in the event I think the deal is likely to hasten the return to devolved government in Stormont, with a view to their controlling that extra spending.) So of course there are plenty of people who are critical of the deal in one way or another, some with greater reason than others.
But if their views on any of these matters were to have prevailed, then there would have been a very real possibility of a hard left Corbyn-led Labour Government within, perhaps, 12 months of now. So we may be uneasy about one or other aspect of the DUP deal, but let us be careful about what we wish for. Those concerns would pale into insignificance by comparison with the Socialist chaos and national bankruptcy which would assuredly follow.
Mr Corbyn has promised billions of pounds in hand-outs, blithely ignoring the money-tree reality; he has promised untold billions to Nationalise various industries (water and railways), and in the past he and his left-wing colleagues have openly espoused the State ownership of large parts of the economy.; he has sympathised with all sorts of terrorist groups, including the IRA, and would apparently be unwilling to use our nuclear deterrent no matter what the aggressor may be doing. In these and a thousand other ways, Mr Corbyn’s Government would soon return us to the economic chaos and national ridicule which we oldies can remember from the 1960s and 1970s. (Perhaps hardly surprising that most of the surge in his Glastonbury-type support comes from those who cannot remember Tony Blair’s Government, far less Harold Wilson’s.)
So leaving aside Labour supporters, who might well want to shoot down the DUP deal as a step towards their Socialist dreamland, others of a more normal and sensible outlook on life need to realise that only through the deal signed this week, no matter what you may think of its detail; only through that deal can we hope for some kind of normalcy, some kind of steadiness. Unless you actually want a Corbyn Government (9000 people did in the election in North Wilts, by comparison with the 33000 Tory voters who did not), you need to realise that not everything in political life is comfortable. Not every aspect is how we would ideally like it to be. But the alternative- in this case a Corbyn-led Socialist catastrophe – would be one heck of a lot worse. Sometimes politics is about the least bad of the options available. This may be one of those occasions.
Last week’s Column was drafted before the appalling tragedy of Grenfell Tower, and so must have seemed unfeeling to some readers. What can anyone say about it? The sheer horror of being stuck on those upper floors is the stuff of nightmares; and the losses and hardship of survivors and the bereaved are appalling. We must all do what little we can to help – and I salute the Malmesbury Fire Station who are washing cars to raise funds. Societies truly come together at times like these to give each other help and support and love.
How sad it therefore is that a mad and bad man should think it some kind of duty to drive his van into peaceful Moslems leaving the Mosque as they break their Ramadan Fast. What kind of lunatic must he be to do such a thing? The Imam acted swiftly and well to stop any kind of immediate backlash. At times like these, we must come together, not force ourselves apart.
Negotiations with the DUP about forming some kind of alliance (which does not imply that we necessarily accept their social values which are at odds with our own); the start of the Brexit negotiations, the drafting of the Queen’s Speech to cover a two year Parliament – The PM’s In-tray is overflowing. And that is without touching on Mr Trump and his troubles, on Qatar, Mosul, Raqqa, Russia and a thousand other vitally important matters any of which could explode at a moment’s notice. Who would want to be PM? I would not do it for a Million pounds.
Two general elections, Brexit referendum, Trump, terrorist outrages, Grenfell Tower and so much else has left us all deeply weary. We need a period of peace and stability; of certainty and hope for the future. That is why I strongly support Mrs May’s efforts to refloat the Ship of State, to get life back to normal, to dampen down fires. Steady as She Goes. One thing we really do not need for now is any kind of leadership challenge or other seismic disturbance. Let’s get through to the Summer, get Parliament going, settle our frayed nerves, start to mend our fractured society. Now is not the time for any more excitements.
So I will be doing what I believe the electorate of North Wilts would want - that peace and quiet, stability and hope for the future. I will not be taking part in plots or gossip, which are rife in Parliament. I will be doing what I can round North Wiltshire (20 or 30 engagements since the Election so far), re-establishing my chairmanships, and my defence and polar interests in Parliament, and taking an active part in every aspect of Parliamentary life. But I will be rocking no boats. Call me dull, if you like, but that is my interpretation of what my electorate want, and also what is good for the country - a period of boredom would do us all a lot of good.
‘Rejoice, Celebrate; be of Good Heart and Great Cheer’ may well not be what you expected to read in my first column after what by anyone’s standard was a train-crash of a General Election. It was probably right to have called it, although there are arguments both ways on that one. The Tory Manifesto, its handling and explanation was a disaster in parts; Theresa May’s Presidential style of campaigning (and relatively wooden appearances – ‘the naughtiest thing I have ever done was to run across a farmer’s wheat field’) was asking for trouble, as was our underestimate of Jeremy Corbyn’s lifelong campaigning ability. We thought that the UKIP vote would come to us, but it seems to have been evenly split with Labour; we failed to foresee the national collapse in the Lib Dem vote, much of which is presumed to have gone to Labour; and we failed to engage properly with young voters, who flocked to the polls in their droves to ‘Vote for Jeremy’.
The result, of course, is not at all what we wanted. A number of good friends and colleagues from across the House find themselves without a job through no fault of their own (Ben Howlett in Bath, Neil Carmichael in Stroud and Charlotte Leslie in Bristol North West locally). We have a minority Conservative Government, which commands only a small overall majority supported by the Democratic Unionists (and there is a tricky read-across here to the current Ulster settlement discussions); we have a weakened (albeit for now surviving) Prime Minister entering some of the trickiest and most important negotiations for decades; we have less clarity about the outcome of those negotiations than we had hoped, and arguably a much weaker negotiating stance as a result of the tricky Parliamentary arithmetic. So not much to like about all of that, and a vast amount of work to do to try to put it right.
Yet we must not let the gloom obscure a few cheerful glimpses. We secured 42.4% of the votes cast, which is the highest since 1983, and not dissimilar to the votes cast for Tony Blair in his landslide 1997 victory. It’s just that we did not see the surge in Labour support coming. We have made great strides in Scotland, where we now have more MPs than any time since 1997, and we put the odious SNP back in their box. And tricky as it may be, we have a Conservative Government for the next five years rather than the Communist dictatorship bankrupting Britain which would have been the consequence of a Corbyn victory. And without immodesty, we have a great deal to celebrate here in Wiltshire. My majority at 22872 is the largest ever in the history of the County, the second largest in the South West; and it is reassuring to know that close to two thirds of the electorate supported me with their vote. I must have done something right.
So I would simply thank every single person who voted for me; and pledge to them and to everyone in North Wilts of all political persuasions and none that I will continue my hard work for all of you. The 32398 people who voted for me did so predominantly because they wanted a Conservative Government and all that that means for them. So I promise to do what I can in Westminster to make sure that they get it. What an honour it is to have been re-elected in this way, and I will do all I can to live up to your high expectations.
© 2018 James Gray MP, House of Commons, London, SW1A 0AA